September 30, 2023

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Fantasy basketball streamers and NBA betting cheat sheet for Wednesday

The ESPN fantasy and betting cheat sheet is your pregame destination for our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge

What you need to know for tonight’s NBA slate

by Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

On Toppin: With Julius Randle out tonight against the Nets, Obi Toppin (93% available) should be busy again offensively in a game with a point total north of 230. Toppin has scored 20 points in each outing. Alec Burks has also emerged as one of the best rebounding guards in the league, bringing enough scoring and playmaking to the floor to help fantasy managers.

Motown Momentum: Marvin Bagley III and Jerami Grant are ruled out of Wednesday’s game against the Mavericks, which means Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes (57% available) are ready to shine. Saddiq Bey also could deliver in DFS platforms and points props as the primary scoring forward for Detroit, but Hayes is the most intriguing streaming candidate on the roster. He’s posted 14.8 points, five dimes, and a whopping 3.3 steals over his past four games.

Hoarding: Oklahoma City has several injuries to key players and is pursuing lottery position. But the Thunder have relied on new names such as Jaylen Hoard (97% available) and Olivier Sarr (98%) to produce as the season nears an end. Hoard produced 24 points and pulled an incredible 21 boards in last night’s win, while Sarr logged a double-double in 39 minutes off the bench. Even Isaiah Roby (87%) has become a valuable source of blocks and boards. With the team likely sitting their starters again, this trio shows promise in all fantasy formats.

Red Velvet: Kevin Huerter (86% available) has become a reliable scoring option for Atlanta recently, producing at least 20 points in five of his last six appearances. The Hawks face a Washington defense that has allowed 44.9 DraftKings points per game to shooting guards over the past month, the fourth-highest during this span. This puts Huerter in a good spot to produce tonight.

Game of the Night

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago IL

Line: Celtics (-6.5)
Moneyline: Celtics (-265), Bulls (+235)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (78.9%)

Key players ruled out: none

Doubtful: Alex Caruso

Notable: The Celtics have seen eight of their past nine games go over the total and get a potentially fatigued Bulls team that played last night.

Best bet: Celtics -6.5. The Celtics and Bulls are two teams headed in the opposite direction in a hurry. Boston has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA for months. They’ve won 13 of their past 16 games with an average scoring margin of +13.6 PPG and won their last game by 42 points. The Bulls, on the other hand, have lost 13 of their past 19 games with an average scoring margin of -7.1 PPG. Chicago has lost their last two games by a total of 39 points, including a 21-point blowout against the Bucks last night. — André Snellings

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Tatum is a solid choice against a Bulls team that lost to the Bucks Tuesday and rank 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions. Tatum has averaged 27 PPG, 4.4 APG, and 8.0 RPG this season and posted 23 points, 12 rebounds and four assists the last time he faced the Bulls. — Eric Moody

Breaking down the rest of the slate

Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Line: Mavericks (-8.5)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-435), Pistons (+330)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.5 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (66.9%)

Key players ruled out: Maxi Kleber, Cory Joseph, Marvin Bagley III

Notable: After cashing four straight under tickets, the Mavericks have now cashed overs in each of their past four (3-1 ATS in those games).

Fantasy Streamer: Isaiah Livers (99.4% available) has started the last two games for the Pistons and scored double digits in both games. He has averaged 14.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.0 3PG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG and 1.0 BPG in 39.0 MPG. Livers is expected to start and likely get a similar amount of run again on Wednesday — Snellings

Fantasy streamer: Davis Bertans. Bertans is on the streaming radar with Maxi Kleber out due to an ankle injury. Bertans has averaged 14.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per minute and should receive significant minutes — Moody

Fantasy streamer: Killian Hayes. Hayes (57.6% available) can accumulate stats on both ends of the floor and has averaged 12.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.3 SPG, and 1.0 BPG in 30.5 MPG over the past eight games. Cory Joseph and Marvin Bagley III have already been ruled out, which bodes well for Hayes. — Moody

Best bet: Luka Doncic over 47.5 points + assists + rebounds. Doncic has had five consecutive 30-point games, the longest streak of his career and tied for the second longest streak in Mavericks history. He also averaged 10.2 APG and 9.2 RPG over that period. Doncic has enjoyed plenty of success against the Pistons in his career. He has averaged 34.0 PPG, 9.8 APG, and 9.3 RPG in four career games facing Detroit. — Moody

Best bet: Pistons +8.5. At this point in the season, there are some picks that I just lock in almost regardless of circumstances. While I know that the Mavericks are fighting for playoffs positioning while the Pistons are headed for the lottery but I will still take the Pistons with the points here because Detroit always covers. The Pistons are a whopping 18-2-2 against the spread since Feb. 14 and they seem to always cover regardless of injury status or competition level. — Snellings

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Line: Nets (-7)
Moneyline: Nets (-300), Knicks (+235)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 223 points BPI Win%: Knicks (50.2%)

Key players ruled out: Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle

Questionable: Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride

Notable: The Knicks have failed to cover five of their past six games at The Garden with three of those losses coming outright by more than 10 points.

Fantasy Streamer: Obi Toppin. With Quentin Grimes and Miles McBride questionable and the Knicks already been eliminated from playoff contention, Toppin (92% available) should be given significant playing time. He’s averaged 14.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 2.4 APG over the past eight games — Moody

Best bet: RJ Barrett over 35.5 points + assists + rebounds. Barrett has averaged 23.5 PPG and 20 FGA over the past 14 games. Brooklyn has been inconsistent defensively this season, ranking 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Knicks will have to rely on Barrett to carry the load offensively. — Moody

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
8 p.m State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Line: Hawks (-10.5)
Moneyline: Hawks (-600), Wizards (+435)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.5 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (71.8%)

Key players ruled out: Kyle Kuzma

Notable: The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games on the second night of a back-to-back and have seen over tickets cashed in six of those eight games (they played in Toronto last night).

Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, UT

Line: Jazz (-17)
Moneyline: Jazz (-2000), Thunder (+1000)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (91%)

Key players ruled out: Tre Mann

Notable: The Jazz are an ugly 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games played on the second night of a back-to-back and they hosted the Grizzlies last night.

Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers
10 p.m. Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Line: Suns (-4.5)
Moneyline: Suns (-150), Clippers (+130)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 210.5 points
BPI Win%: Suns (56%)

Key players ruled out: none

Notable: After an 0-5-1 ATS run, the Clippers have covered three of their past four, with a pair of blowout outright wins in their past two games.

Analytics Edge

BPI highest projected totals

1. Atlanta Hawks (121.7 points)
2. Utah Jazz (120.9 points)
3. Boston Celtics (117 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. LA Clippers (104.4 points)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (105.7 points)
3. Phoenix Suns (106 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Utah Jazz (91%)
2. Boston Celtics (78.9%)
3. Atlanta Hawks (71.8%)