September 30, 2023

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Fantasy basketball streamers and NBA betting cheat sheet for Tuesday

The ESPN fantasy and betting cheat sheet is your pregame destination for our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge

What you need to know for Tuesday night’s NBA slate

By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

The Pass Man: With Chris Paul continuing to sit and Cam Johnson set to miss a sixth consecutive game, Cam Payne (66% available, $7,700 on DraftKings) again profiles as a great play. He’s racked up either double digit assists or 20 points in six straight games, posting 11 assists and 0 turnovers on Sunday against the Lakers. As long as he is the on ball play-maker in this offense, he’s worth a look in all fantasy and betting markets.

Magical Matchups: Orlando’s path to production on Tuesday starts with the fact Brooklyn has allowed the most DraftKings points to small forwards and the seventh-most to shooting guards over the past seven games. With Jalen Suggs listed as questionable, it’s worth noting Markelle Fultz (86% available) has notched 18 assists in his last 37 minutes of action. Rookie Franz Wagner (37%) is also poised to produce given the friendly matchup metrics. For the Nets, Andre Drummond (52%) should log heavy minutes and help both as a streaming option and rebounding prop candidate. He faces an Orlando team that almost always has a traditional center on the floor.

Missing Morant: Ja Morant is listed as doubtful to play against the Pacers due to back soreness. Morant’s likely absence vaults point guard Tyus Jones (96% available) into a starting role as the Grizzlies’ lead creator. Morant missed a game against the Pelicans back in mid-February, one that saw Jones start and post a season-high 27 points on 17 shots to go with a season-high nine dimes. There’s a lot to like about Jones facing an Indiana team that has allowed 57.1 DraftKings points per game to point guards over the past seven games, the third-highest rate in the league. Dillon Brooks (72%) is also primed for a bigger role with Morant sidelined.

Wildcat Week: One of Villanova’s clutch playmakers in their most recent title run was Donte DiVincenzo (63% available), who just earned his first start as a King on Monday and delivered a rich line that included 15 points, 11 combined rebounds and dimes, and three 3-pointers. Roster DiVincenzo ahead of his next start. Sticking with Nova, we find Mikal Bridges in a good spot to hit scoring and rebounding props. After all, Bridges has averaged 19 PPG and 7.3 RPG over the past three games.

Naji In New Orleans: With Brandon Ingram out, Naji Marshall (99% available) is in a quietly strong spot. He’s averaged 15.5 PPG with respectable rebounding and assist rates in his past two games starting in place of Ingram. Marshall paced the Pels in minutes last time out and a nice DFS bargain and redraft streaming candidate to target on a limited four-game slate.

Game of the Night

Line: Suns (-5.5)
Moneyline: Suns (-220), Pelicans (+180)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.5 points
BPI Win%: Suns (50.3%)

Key players ruled out: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram

Notable: The Pelicans have dropped four of their past five ATS and in those five games, the over has cashed four times.

Best bet: Devin Booker over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds. Booker continues to prosper without Chris Paul. He has averaged 26.7 PPG, 8.3 APG, and 4.7 RPG over the past six games and the Pelicans rank 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions. New Orleans also allows one of the highest effective field goal percentages to opponents. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Suns (-5.5). Both teams have major players out for this match-up, and McCollum’s status could play a big part in how the game goes as well. But without two key players,the Suns have still won three of their last four games, including a blowout win over the Eastern Conference leading Miami Heat. They should still have the advantage against a short-handed Pelicans squad. — André Snellings

Breaking down the rest of the slate

Line: Grizzlies (-7)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-290), Pacers (+230)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232.5 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (68.9%)

Key players ruled out: none

Questionable: Goga Bitadze, Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, and Lance Stephenson

Doubtful: Ja Morant

Notable: Betting totals is a game of adjustments. From Jan. 31 through Feb. 16, all eight Memphis games coasted over the total. The books adjusted and five of the next six went under. Well, we are in the midst of another adjust, as each of the past the Grizz games have gone over the total.

Fantasy Streamer: Tyus Jones. Ja Morant is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game so Jones (97% available) will get the spot-start. He has averaged 16.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 8.0 rebounds per 40 minutes and and the Pacers rank 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody

Fantasy streamer: Dillon Brooks. In his first game back from an ankle injury, Brooks (72% available) posted a solid stat line for fantasy managers and should get more playing time tonight. — Moody

Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 30.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Pacers have a number of players questionable against the Grizzlies. This positions Haliburton well for a monster game. He’s averaged 19.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 10 APG over the past 12 games. — Moody

Line: Nets (-9.5)
Moneyline: Nets (-435), Magic (+330)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.5 points
BPI Win%: Nets (54.6%)

Key players ruled out: none

Questionable: Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, Cam Thomas, Seth Curry

Notable: The Nets are unbeaten ATS in their past eight road games and they’ve seen seven of their past nine away from Brooklyn go over the total.

Fantasy Streamer: Markelle Fultz. I know Fultz (86% available) was mentioned in the open, but I’ve still got to speak on him. In the last two games, Fultz has been the best player on the court. He played 18 minutes in an upset win over Karl-Anthony Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves and played 19 minutes in a 2-point overtime loss to Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers that Orlando could have won if Fultz wasn’t on a minutes restriction. He’s playing at an extremely high level (11 PPG, 9 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG and 1 3PG in 18.5 MPG in those two contests) and is worthy of a flier. — Snellings

Best bet: Kevin Durant over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Since returning from injury, Durant has averaged 32 PPG, 7.0 APG, and 6.6 RPG in his past five games. Over that period, he had a usage rate of 33.2%. The Magic rank 21st with 113 points allowed per 100 possessions and in the 23 career games Durant has played against Orlando, he’s averaged 27.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 4.5 APG. — Moody

Best bet: Wendell Carter Jr. over 27.5 points + rebounds. Carter Jr. has averaged 19 PPG and 12 RPG over his past nine games. He has tallied 31 double-doubles this season and has a good chance of getting another one against the Nets. — Moody

Line: Heat (-13)
Moneyline: Heat (-900), Pistons (+600)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 207.5 points
BPI Win%: Heat (83.6%)

Key players ruled out: Frank Jackson, Hamidou Diallo, Caleb Martin

Notable: The Pistons are riding an 11-game unbeaten streak ATS (9-0-2) and have seen under tickets cash in five of their past six.

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 31.5 points + assists + rebounds. With Caleb Martin out, Butler will be utilized more. He has averaged 21.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG and 5.6 APG this season. — Moody

Best bet: Pistons +13. This was a toss-up pick between taking the Pistons and the points and going with the under. I went with the Pistons and points because they’ve been playing so well for such an extended stretch that 13 points is just too many to give them. Their unbeaten ATS stretch was against tough competition including three games against the scorching Celtics (two in Boston), Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks. — Snellings

Analytics Edge

BPI highest projected totals

1. Memphis Grizzlies (119 points)
2. Indiana Pacers (113.3 points)
3. Brooklyn Nets (111.8 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Detroit Pistons (98.4 points)
2. New Orleans Pelicans (110.2 points)
3. Phoenix Suns (110.3 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Miami Heat (83.6%)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (68.9%)
3. Brooklyn Nets (54.6%)